So far the modeling program I use has predicted 5 wins and 0 losses.
It predicts a 12 pt win over ASU.
It also predicted a 6 pt win over Cal. In my prior post it was only a 3 pt prediction but that was prior to the WSU-cal game. AFter that game the prediction margin went up to 6 points. It predicted a score of 35-29. oh well.
So far so good.
ASU on paper.
Both times they looked terrible. Why did they look terrible?
Against USC it was TOs, 3 fumbles and 1 pick. Good news we are great at generating TOs. Against USC they moved the ball well and had equal yardage to USC. ASU defense was also very stout against the run allowing only 76 yds total but terrible against the pass, 379. This is a good sign for us. We do well against teams that have weak pass def and better run defense, essentially, because booker can run against anything and still get 100+ yds.
Against aTm it was a combination of ineffective run game and fumbles. This again bodes well for us. We are probably the best defense they have faced and will likely not rush for more 100yds and seem to be quite prone to fumble (5 in two losses).
They favor the pass heavily but need to run for over 150 in order to make the pass game reliable.
In the aTm game they ran for 92 and could only pass for 199. In the USC game the offense was effective and ran for 182 and passed for 272 but TOed it too much to score effectively.
57th scoring off (31pts/game)- oregon and cal are 9/12th, michigan is 67th, USU 85th, FSU 114th. They are the third best offense we have faced and if it goes as planned should probably score less than ore/cal and more than USU/mich. In the 17-23 pt range.
69th scoring def (26.2pts allowed/game). Mich/usu/cal are all better defenses (1/30/60th respectively). We scored 24-24-30 and I would expect to be able to score slightly more than 30 in this game.
59th rush off 179/game
29th pass off 267/game (cal was 10th 355/game we held to 340)
45th rush def 138/game
91st pass def 244/game
25th Scoring off 37/game
33rd scoring def 19/g
24th rush off 216/game
100th pass off 185/game
39th rush def 133/game (USC is 64th and aTm is 86th)
101st pass def 258/game ( we have played two top 15 pass off so this is bound to be bad even if we played under the opponent avg)
There are a lot of things that are going in our favor for this game. ASU has lost 11 fumbles/int so far this year and are -2 for the year. We are very good so far at getting the ball. We are first in the country, FYI in TO margin.
Also the average rush def faced for ASU is (86, 95, 64, 100, and 101) is 89th. We are by far the best rush defense they have faced. I know the first thing everyone will say is that ASU relies on the pass to win but if you look at the game (aTm) when they struggled offensively it was because the ground game was taken away and they had to just throw the ball exclusively. aTm they threw 41 times and ran 26 and USC they were 44/28. The other games they avg 36 pass, 35 run. The key here being a stout run defense (which they have yet to face) will force the ball to the air more and they become one dimensional and easier to defend. Also when you look at the stats it forces bercovici to run unplanned. He is not nearly as dangerous as kelly was. This means you don't have to spy him and the xtra LB/DB can stay in coverage. Thats how aTm was successful.
I think this year we get the shock curse off. I think we wont have many more runaway wins this year like oregon but I think this one will be comfortable win by 12-14 pts. The defense won't be as tested as they were against cal. They will control the game and give up a few long plays and one late garbage TD.
I think the score will be 34-21 UTes.
Also since the USC debacle last week my model now predicts 12 wins and no losses. The closest game is still USC though with a 3 pt win and wash next hardest at 7 point win.
Either way this is exciting football.
No easy weeks and every team will give us their best game to try and knock off the king.
Booker's path has earned him his teammates' greatest respect. Just this past weekend, defensive back Boobie Hobbs used Booker as the reason to justify why Utah should be ranked the No. 1 team in the country.
"We have to tackle Devontae Booker in practice," Hobbs said. "So we're not afraid of anyone."
their success --- Dennis Erickson. It's funny, whenever I mention him around ASU fans they scoff, and shake their head. He was absolutely the wrong head coach for Tempe, but they just don't get it. The guy may be a senior citizen, but somehow he finds ways to relate to these kids. This team would look quite a bit different without him. Utah is damn lucky to have the guy on staff, and I hope he stays on board until he's no longer kicking.
Your post is just plain stupid. There are so many more coaches out there that are better than Gary it isn't even a contest. If you love him so much then follow his wonderful Beavers team this season and enjoy his brilliance. It took Gary 3 full years before he did anything of substance at USU. At Wisconsin he won some games but no real big ones. He is 1-2 in bowl games and his team this year stinks. Why are you so damn high on the guy? All of your points just prove what he is which is a mediocre head coach with mediocre results.
1. In Jail beat up a zoob
2. Spooning Obama
4. Other Board and helps out on the Hillary Clinton Campain
5. In Jail - Exposed himself
5. Came out of the Closet and watches Richard Simmons videos all day
6. Who gives a #%!@
7. Owns FireBronco.com
8. Watching his big TV stalking Comrade Crimson
9. Is a byu fan now
There's nothing iconically Utah about and it adds absolutely nothing to the atmosphere of the game experience. It's more cringe-worthy than Bronco celebrating mediocrity.
Whenever a visitor asks about it I just shrug and say "I have no idea"
I realize the damned thing probably cost $100k or some ungodly price so we gotta get our money out of it, but when has this failed hype drum seen its last beating?
If you notice the team before our husky male cheerleaders lumber onto the field with other drum, they're out there getting pumped up by each other only to be calmed down again with the lullaby from the drummers.
What's funny is everybody thinks Monson hates their team. Ask an Aggie, a Jazzfan or a Cougar. I haven't read an article of his in a long time but I've heard him on the radio. Typically he has a fairly good voice of reason. You don't hear Monson tearing into teams that suck, that's unethical.
His job is to get viewers and readers. He's not paid to be a fan. I watch WWE weekly and I used to think "why would anybody want to be a bad guy on there?" Then I realized the bad guys get a lot more publicity than any of the good guys. Monson and PK are the same way. Their job is to get you to talk about them and get people to either argue with them or tune in our read their articles.
According to your response it appears it worked to perfection.
Besides, people need to stop hiding and running away from this they don't like. It's the number one problem in the world, acceptance. Do you really want Monson to just put out happy stories about Utah that go unmemorable? If everybody was a Utah fan we'd have nothing to root for. Same goes for everything in life.
Dang, I only visit this board one time a year! Why am I limited to only 10 posts a day? Cmon mods, how about 20 posts a day?
You guys all know I entertain you.
No I am not a BYU fan in disguise. Any mod can prove that.
I will be back on here after the game to either congratulate you or gloat.
In the meantime, do you think coach Willingham is going to get a big old pay raise leveraging the USC situation or do you think the AD will wait and see if the wheels start to come off your dream season starting Saturday night?
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